Michaelmas Island Albany WA 2026¶

This case study records an active-event AI1SAD replay for the fatal Michaelmas Island incident near Albany, Western Australia.

The replay uses three separated runs:

strict pre-incident replay
quiet-day comparison
post-incident operational update

The strict pre-incident and quiet-day runs intentionally match because both use the same location, season, spearfishing activity, and offshore structure context without post-incident signals. This avoids making the model look more successful by weakening the comparison baseline.

Verified Event Record¶

Field	Value
Location	Michaelmas Island, City of Albany, Western Australia
Replay coordinates	`-35.050, 118.020` approximate operational point
Date	`2026-06-06`
Incident time	approximately `11:25 a.m. AWST`
Reported to DPIRD	approximately `11:30 a.m. AWST`
Victim context	male diver, age 35
Activity	spearfishing with family
Outcome	fatal
Official wording	suspected `4.5 m` shark
Secondary classification	suspected white shark, source-attributed and unconfirmed

The replay does not treat white-shark taxonomy as confirmed.

Timeline Separation¶

The strict pre-incident replay excludes:

post-incident caution or closure guidance
contemporaneous or later shark reports unless clearly timestamped earlier
invented prey migration values
invented currents, weather, sightings, or habitat values
Rottnest Island and Queensland fatalities as same-corridor events

Rottnest Island and Queensland may be broader regional/national context in narrative review only. They are not modeled as the same connected coastal corridor, and the replay makes no same-individual assumption.

Replay Results¶

Run	Warning Score	Activity Hazard Score	Surveillance Priority Score	Interpretation
Strict pre-incident	`0.0` low	`58` elevated	`89.3` high	Existing WA spearfishing/offshore-structure context already creates high surveillance attention without hindsight.
Quiet-day comparison	`0.0` low	`58` elevated	`89.3` high	Same location, season, spearfishing activity, and offshore structure baseline; no incident-specific signals.
Post-incident operational update	`0.0` low	`70` elevated	`100` high	Fatal recent interaction and caution guidance increase operational focus after the source time.

Missing Signal Sources¶

The strict replay marks missing sources rather than filling values:

weather observations
ocean observations
SST anomaly
vessel activity
human exposure estimates
biological events
recent interactions
sighting reports

Operational Pattern¶

Recommended patterns:

offshore_island_focus_scan
shoreline_return_route_monitoring
spearfishing_activity_buffer
post_incident_focus_area

Active regional pack: western_australia.

Artifacts¶

Operational Caveat¶

This replay is a bounded operational-surveillance artifact. It is not a safety guarantee and does not replace official beach, wildlife, weather, or emergency guidance.