{
  "case_id": "michaelmas_island_albany_wa_2026",
  "strict_pre_incident": {
    "top_surveillance_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "regional_species_suitability",
        "value": null,
        "points": 21.0,
        "rationale": "Nearest regional profile and suspected species context adjust search priority.",
        "contribution": 0.2352
      },
      {
        "factor": "activity_hazard_score",
        "value": 58,
        "points": 20.3,
        "rationale": "Activity hazard feeds surveillance priority separately from environmental warning score.",
        "contribution": 0.2273
      },
      {
        "factor": "wa_white_shark_reef_spearfishing_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 18,
        "rationale": "Western Australia white shark profile weights reef/spearfishing or diving search context.",
        "contribution": 0.2016
      },
      {
        "factor": "activity_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 14,
        "rationale": "Activity context shapes where a safety team may search; spearfishing is context, not automatic provocation.",
        "contribution": 0.1568
      },
      {
        "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
        "value": 1,
        "points": 13,
        "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
        "contribution": 0.1456
      },
      {
        "factor": "regional_sst_species_context",
        "value": 0.0,
        "points": 3,
        "rationale": "Regional SST species context can support surveillance review without dominating priority.",
        "contribution": 0.0336
      }
    ],
    "top_warning_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "rainfall_intensity_score",
        "value": 0,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Rainfall in the previous 72 hours.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "runoff_score",
        "value": 0,
        "points": 0.0,
        "rationale": "Rainfall/runoff proxy near coastal water.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "river_mouth_proximity_score",
        "value": null,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Nearest river mouth, inlet, estuary, or outflow.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "sst_score",
        "value": null,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature suitability.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "sst_anomaly_score",
        "value": null,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature anomaly magnitude.",
        "contribution": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "quiet_day_comparison": {
    "top_surveillance_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "regional_species_suitability",
        "value": null,
        "points": 21.0,
        "rationale": "Nearest regional profile and suspected species context adjust search priority.",
        "contribution": 0.2352
      },
      {
        "factor": "activity_hazard_score",
        "value": 58,
        "points": 20.3,
        "rationale": "Activity hazard feeds surveillance priority separately from environmental warning score.",
        "contribution": 0.2273
      },
      {
        "factor": "wa_white_shark_reef_spearfishing_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 18,
        "rationale": "Western Australia white shark profile weights reef/spearfishing or diving search context.",
        "contribution": 0.2016
      },
      {
        "factor": "activity_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 14,
        "rationale": "Activity context shapes where a safety team may search; spearfishing is context, not automatic provocation.",
        "contribution": 0.1568
      },
      {
        "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
        "value": 1,
        "points": 13,
        "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
        "contribution": 0.1456
      },
      {
        "factor": "regional_sst_species_context",
        "value": 0.0,
        "points": 3,
        "rationale": "Regional SST species context can support surveillance review without dominating priority.",
        "contribution": 0.0336
      }
    ],
    "top_warning_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "rainfall_intensity_score",
        "value": 0,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Rainfall in the previous 72 hours.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "runoff_score",
        "value": 0,
        "points": 0.0,
        "rationale": "Rainfall/runoff proxy near coastal water.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "river_mouth_proximity_score",
        "value": null,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Nearest river mouth, inlet, estuary, or outflow.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "sst_score",
        "value": null,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature suitability.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "sst_anomaly_score",
        "value": null,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature anomaly magnitude.",
        "contribution": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "post_incident_operational_update": {
    "top_surveillance_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "activity_hazard_score",
        "value": 70,
        "points": 24.5,
        "rationale": "Activity hazard feeds surveillance priority separately from environmental warning score.",
        "contribution": 0.245
      },
      {
        "factor": "recent_interactions_nearby",
        "value": 1,
        "points": 22,
        "rationale": "Recent public fatal/nonfatal interactions near the mission area increase search priority.",
        "contribution": 0.22
      },
      {
        "factor": "regional_species_suitability",
        "value": null,
        "points": 21.0,
        "rationale": "Nearest regional profile and suspected species context adjust search priority.",
        "contribution": 0.21
      },
      {
        "factor": "wa_white_shark_reef_spearfishing_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 18,
        "rationale": "Western Australia white shark profile weights reef/spearfishing or diving search context.",
        "contribution": 0.18
      },
      {
        "factor": "activity_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 14,
        "rationale": "Activity context shapes where a safety team may search; spearfishing is context, not automatic provocation.",
        "contribution": 0.14
      },
      {
        "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
        "value": 1,
        "points": 13,
        "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
        "contribution": 0.13
      }
    ],
    "top_warning_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "rainfall_intensity_score",
        "value": 0,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Rainfall in the previous 72 hours.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "runoff_score",
        "value": 0,
        "points": 0.0,
        "rationale": "Rainfall/runoff proxy near coastal water.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "river_mouth_proximity_score",
        "value": null,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Nearest river mouth, inlet, estuary, or outflow.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "sst_score",
        "value": null,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature suitability.",
        "contribution": 0
      },
      {
        "factor": "sst_anomaly_score",
        "value": null,
        "points": 0,
        "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature anomaly magnitude.",
        "contribution": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "classification_handling": {
    "taxon": "suspected white shark",
    "classification_status": "source_attributed_unconfirmed",
    "estimated_length_m": 4.5
  },
  "same_individual_assumption": false,
  "local_corridor_exclusions": [
    "Rottnest Island fatality not modeled as same local corridor",
    "Queensland fatality not modeled as same local corridor"
  ],
  "recommended_surveillance_patterns": [
    "offshore_island_focus_scan",
    "shoreline_return_route_monitoring",
    "spearfishing_activity_buffer",
    "post_incident_focus_area"
  ]
}