{
  "scenario": {
    "scenario_id": "queensland_spearfishing_reef_tiger_bull_2026",
    "label": "Queensland spearfishing on tropical reef with tiger/bull shark operational context",
    "timestamp": "2026-05-24T08:00:00+00:00",
    "coordinates": {
      "lat": -18.082164764,
      "lon": 146.448303222
    },
    "approximate_region": "Kennedy Shoal / Great Barrier Reef, Far North Queensland, Australia",
    "activity_context": "spearfishing",
    "suspected_species_context": [
      "tiger shark",
      "bull shark"
    ],
    "reef_habitat": true,
    "dropoff_habitat": true
  },
  "warning": {
    "location": {
      "geo": {
        "type": "Point",
        "coordinates": [
          146.448303222,
          -18.082164764
        ]
      }
    },
    "warning_score": 16.64,
    "warning_band": "low",
    "activity_context_score": 50,
    "activity_context_band": "elevated",
    "activity_hazard_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "activity_context_hazard",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 24,
        "rationale": "Human activity context can increase encounter hazard; this is not attack probability or an intent claim.",
        "contribution": 0.48
      },
      {
        "factor": "catch_near_reef_or_dropoff",
        "value": true,
        "points": 14,
        "rationale": "Catch handling near reef/dropoff habitat can increase search and encounter-hazard context.",
        "contribution": 0.28
      },
      {
        "factor": "bait_or_prey_activity_context",
        "value": true,
        "points": 12,
        "rationale": "Bait or prey activity can increase activity-context hazard near in-water activity.",
        "contribution": 0.24
      }
    ],
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "lookback_hours": 72,
    "signals": {
      "rainfall_72h_mm": 0.0,
      "rainfall_intensity_score": 0,
      "runoff_score": 0.0,
      "river_mouth_proximity_score": 0,
      "sst_score": 5,
      "sst_anomaly_score": 0.6,
      "fishing_vessel_activity_score": 3.5,
      "biological_event_score": 2.75,
      "weather_alert_score": 0.0,
      "human_exposure_score": 3.36,
      "human_exposure_amplifier_score": 0,
      "regional_seasonal_multiplier": 1.08
    },
    "regional_profile": {
      "region_key": "queensland_australia",
      "name": "Queensland, Australia",
      "local_summer_high_exposure_months": [
        11,
        12,
        1,
        2,
        3
      ],
      "known_high_attention_months": [
        5,
        6,
        7
      ],
      "dominant_species": [
        "tiger shark",
        "bull shark",
        "reef shark",
        "whaler shark"
      ],
      "species_weights": {
        "tiger shark": 1.0,
        "bull shark": 0.9,
        "reef shark": 0.5,
        "whaler shark": 0.6
      },
      "warning_cache_ttl_minutes": 45,
      "notes": "Queensland replay profile emphasizes tropical reef context, warm water, and tiger/bull shark operational suitability.",
      "citations": [
        "Australian Shark-Incident Database",
        "GSAF public incident records"
      ]
    },
    "dominant_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "sst_score",
        "value": 29.0,
        "points": 5,
        "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature suitability.",
        "contribution": 0.3005
      },
      {
        "factor": "fishing_vessel_activity_score",
        "value": 0.35,
        "points": 3.5,
        "rationale": "Fishing or vessel activity signal.",
        "contribution": 0.2103
      },
      {
        "factor": "human_exposure_score",
        "value": 0.28,
        "points": 3.36,
        "rationale": "Estimated number/intensity of people in the water.",
        "contribution": 0.2019
      },
      {
        "factor": "biological_event_score",
        "value": 1,
        "points": 2.75,
        "rationale": "Whale carcass, stranding, baitfish, or prey event signal.",
        "contribution": 0.1653
      },
      {
        "factor": "regional_high_attention_month",
        "value": 5,
        "multiplier": 1.08,
        "points": 1.23,
        "rationale": "Regional seasonal multiplier.",
        "contribution": 0.0739
      }
    ],
    "data_sources_used": [
      "biological_events",
      "human_exposure_estimates",
      "ocean_observations",
      "sst_anomaly",
      "vessel_activity",
      "weather_observations"
    ],
    "missing_data_sources": [],
    "score_split": {
      "warning_score": "Environmental/live-condition risk from weather, ocean, biological, vessel, and exposure signals.",
      "surveillance_priority_score": "Where safety or drone teams should look first.",
      "activity_hazard_score": "Risk introduced by what the human is doing in context. It is not attack probability."
    },
    "disclaimer": "AI1SAD estimates environmental and surveillance-relevant shark encounter conditions. It does not predict individual attacks or guarantee safety outcomes. It is not an attack prediction."
  },
  "surveillance": {
    "zone_id": "replay_case_study:-18.082:146.448:72:spearfishing",
    "priority_score": 96.86,
    "priority_band": "high",
    "surveillance_priority_score": 96.86,
    "surveillance_priority_band": "high",
    "warning_score": 16.64,
    "warning_band": "low",
    "activity_context_score": 50,
    "activity_context_band": "elevated",
    "activity_hazard_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "activity_context_hazard",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 24,
        "rationale": "Human activity context can increase encounter hazard; this is not attack probability or an intent claim.",
        "contribution": 0.48
      },
      {
        "factor": "catch_near_reef_or_dropoff",
        "value": true,
        "points": 14,
        "rationale": "Catch handling near reef/dropoff habitat can increase search and encounter-hazard context.",
        "contribution": 0.28
      },
      {
        "factor": "bait_or_prey_activity_context",
        "value": true,
        "points": 12,
        "rationale": "Bait or prey activity can increase activity-context hazard near in-water activity.",
        "contribution": 0.24
      }
    ],
    "center": {
      "geo": {
        "type": "Point",
        "coordinates": [
          146.448303222,
          -18.082164764
        ]
      }
    },
    "radius_km": 2.5,
    "polygon": null,
    "recommended_pattern": "reef-edge expanding grid",
    "dominant_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "regional_species_suitability",
        "value": "tiger shark",
        "points": 22.0,
        "rationale": "Nearest regional profile and suspected species context adjust search priority.",
        "contribution": 0.2271
      },
      {
        "factor": "activity_hazard_score",
        "value": 50,
        "points": 17.5,
        "rationale": "Activity hazard feeds surveillance priority separately from environmental warning score.",
        "contribution": 0.1807
      },
      {
        "factor": "activity_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 14,
        "rationale": "Activity context shapes where a safety team may search; spearfishing is context, not automatic provocation.",
        "contribution": 0.1445
      },
      {
        "factor": "queensland_tiger_bull_reef_spearfishing_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 14,
        "rationale": "Queensland profile weights tropical reef/spearfishing search context for tiger/bull operational suitability.",
        "contribution": 0.1445
      },
      {
        "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
        "value": 1,
        "points": 13,
        "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
        "contribution": 0.1342
      },
      {
        "factor": "regional_species_match",
        "value": "tiger shark",
        "points": 8,
        "rationale": "Suspected species is listed in the nearest public regional profile.",
        "contribution": 0.0826
      }
    ],
    "confidence": 0.78,
    "data_sources_used": [
      "biological_events",
      "human_exposure_estimates",
      "ocean_observations",
      "reef_features",
      "regional_risk_profiles",
      "sst_anomaly",
      "vessel_activity",
      "weather_observations"
    ],
    "missing_data_sources": [
      "recent_interactions",
      "sighting_reports"
    ],
    "regional_profile": {
      "region_key": "queensland_australia",
      "name": "Queensland, Australia",
      "local_summer_high_exposure_months": [
        11,
        12,
        1,
        2,
        3
      ],
      "known_high_attention_months": [
        5,
        6,
        7
      ],
      "dominant_species": [
        "tiger shark",
        "bull shark",
        "reef shark",
        "whaler shark"
      ],
      "species_weights": {
        "tiger shark": 1.0,
        "bull shark": 0.9,
        "reef shark": 0.5,
        "whaler shark": 0.6
      },
      "warning_cache_ttl_minutes": 45,
      "notes": "Queensland replay profile emphasizes tropical reef context, warm water, and tiger/bull shark operational suitability.",
      "citations": [
        "Australian Shark-Incident Database",
        "GSAF public incident records"
      ]
    },
    "mission_type": "replay_case_study",
    "activity_context": "spearfishing",
    "suspected_species": "tiger shark",
    "distance_from_request_km": 0,
    "score_split": {
      "warning_score": "Environmental/live-condition risk from weather, ocean, biological, vessel, and exposure signals.",
      "surveillance_priority_score": "Where safety or drone teams should look first.",
      "activity_hazard_score": "Risk introduced by what the human is doing in context. It is not attack probability."
    },
    "disclaimer": "AI1SAD estimates environmental and surveillance-relevant shark encounter conditions. It does not predict individual attacks or guarantee safety outcomes. It is not an attack prediction. This drone/search prioritization score supports coastal safety planning and does not infer shark intent or classify a person as provoking an animal."
  },
  "quiet_day_comparison": {
    "current_warning_score": 16.64,
    "baseline_warning_score": 15.77,
    "delta": 0.87,
    "delta_percent": 5.52,
    "current_band": "low",
    "baseline_band": "low",
    "band_change": false,
    "current_confidence": 0.9,
    "baseline_confidence": 0.83,
    "missing_data_sources": [],
    "interpretation": "Conditions near quiet-day baseline."
  },
  "confidence_breakdown": {
    "overall_confidence": 0.8751,
    "confidence_band": "high",
    "components": {
      "coverage_confidence": 0.7778,
      "freshness_confidence": 1.0,
      "completeness_confidence": 0.88,
      "coverage_score": 0.7778,
      "freshness_penalty": 0.0,
      "missing_penalty": 0.12,
      "source_details": {
        "weather_observations": {
          "weight": 0.15,
          "status": "present",
          "contribution": 0.15
        },
        "ocean_observations": {
          "weight": 0.15,
          "status": "present",
          "contribution": 0.15
        },
        "vessel_activity": {
          "weight": 0.1,
          "status": "present",
          "contribution": 0.1
        },
        "biological_events": {
          "weight": 0.15,
          "status": "present",
          "contribution": 0.15
        },
        "human_exposure_estimates": {
          "weight": 0.1,
          "status": "present",
          "contribution": 0.1
        },
        "recent_interactions": {
          "weight": 0.15,
          "status": "missing",
          "contribution": 0.15
        },
        "sighting_reports": {
          "weight": 0.1,
          "status": "missing",
          "contribution": 0.1
        },
        "reef_features": {
          "weight": 0.05,
          "status": "present",
          "contribution": 0.05
        },
        "regional_risk_profiles": {
          "weight": 0.05,
          "status": "present",
          "contribution": 0.05
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "signal_decay": [
    {
      "signal_type": "spearfishing_activity",
      "timestamp": "2026-05-24T08:00:00+00:00",
      "value": 1.0,
      "visibility": "public",
      "decay_weight": 0.5946,
      "age_hours": 6.0,
      "decayed_value": 0.5946,
      "decay_model": {
        "half_life_hours": 8.0,
        "expiry_multiplier": 3.0,
        "expires_after_hours": 24.0
      }
    },
    {
      "signal_type": "vessel_activity",
      "timestamp": "2026-05-24T08:00:00+00:00",
      "value": 0.35,
      "visibility": "public",
      "decay_weight": 0.7071,
      "age_hours": 6.0,
      "decayed_value": 0.2475,
      "decay_model": {
        "half_life_hours": 12.0,
        "expiry_multiplier": 3.0,
        "expires_after_hours": 36.0
      }
    },
    {
      "signal_type": "ocean_sst",
      "timestamp": "2026-05-24T08:00:00+00:00",
      "value": 29.0,
      "visibility": "public",
      "decay_weight": 0.8409,
      "age_hours": 6.0,
      "decayed_value": 24.386,
      "decay_model": {
        "half_life_hours": 24.0,
        "expiry_multiplier": 3.0,
        "expires_after_hours": 72.0
      }
    },
    {
      "signal_type": "biological_event",
      "timestamp": "2026-05-24T06:00:00+00:00",
      "value": 0.5,
      "visibility": "public",
      "decay_weight": 0.9259,
      "age_hours": 8.0,
      "decayed_value": 0.4629,
      "decay_model": {
        "half_life_hours": 72.0,
        "expiry_multiplier": 2.0,
        "expires_after_hours": 144.0
      }
    }
  ],
  "metadata": {
    "model_version": "0.11.0",
    "scoring_revision": "phase-11-explainability",
    "provider_stack_version": "phase-9-static-live-adapters",
    "generated_at": "2026-05-25T05:15:32.489827+00:00",
    "replay_asset_version": "2026.05"
  },
  "disclaimer": "AI1SAD estimates environmental and surveillance-relevant shark encounter conditions. It does not predict individual attacks or guarantee safety outcomes. It is not an attack prediction.",
  "explanation": {
    "output_type": "replay",
    "location": {
      "geo": {
        "type": "Point",
        "coordinates": [
          146.448303222,
          -18.082164764
        ]
      }
    },
    "active_pack": "core",
    "available_pack": null,
    "pack_notice": null,
    "pack_features_used": [],
    "warning_score": 16.64,
    "activity_hazard_score": 50.0,
    "surveillance_priority_score": 96.86,
    "dominant_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "regional_species_suitability",
        "value": "tiger shark",
        "points": 22.0,
        "rationale": "Nearest regional profile and suspected species context adjust search priority.",
        "contribution": 0.2271
      },
      {
        "factor": "activity_hazard_score",
        "value": 50,
        "points": 17.5,
        "rationale": "Activity hazard feeds surveillance priority separately from environmental warning score.",
        "contribution": 0.1807
      },
      {
        "factor": "activity_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 14,
        "rationale": "Activity context shapes where a safety team may search; spearfishing is context, not automatic provocation.",
        "contribution": 0.1445
      },
      {
        "factor": "queensland_tiger_bull_reef_spearfishing_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 14,
        "rationale": "Queensland profile weights tropical reef/spearfishing search context for tiger/bull operational suitability.",
        "contribution": 0.1445
      },
      {
        "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
        "value": 1,
        "points": 13,
        "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
        "contribution": 0.1342
      },
      {
        "factor": "regional_species_match",
        "value": "tiger shark",
        "points": 8,
        "rationale": "Suspected species is listed in the nearest public regional profile.",
        "contribution": 0.0826
      }
    ],
    "factor_contributions": [
      {
        "factor": "regional_species_suitability",
        "value": "tiger shark",
        "points": 22.0,
        "contribution": 0.2271,
        "rationale": "Nearest regional profile and suspected species context adjust search priority."
      },
      {
        "factor": "activity_hazard_score",
        "value": 50,
        "points": 17.5,
        "contribution": 0.1807,
        "rationale": "Activity hazard feeds surveillance priority separately from environmental warning score."
      },
      {
        "factor": "activity_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 14.0,
        "contribution": 0.1445,
        "rationale": "Activity context shapes where a safety team may search; spearfishing is context, not automatic provocation."
      },
      {
        "factor": "queensland_tiger_bull_reef_spearfishing_context",
        "value": "spearfishing",
        "points": 14.0,
        "contribution": 0.1445,
        "rationale": "Queensland profile weights tropical reef/spearfishing search context for tiger/bull operational suitability."
      },
      {
        "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
        "value": 1,
        "points": 13.0,
        "contribution": 0.1342,
        "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones."
      },
      {
        "factor": "regional_species_match",
        "value": "tiger shark",
        "points": 8.0,
        "contribution": 0.0826,
        "rationale": "Suspected species is listed in the nearest public regional profile."
      }
    ],
    "confidence_breakdown": {
      "overall_confidence": 0.8751,
      "confidence_band": "high",
      "components": {
        "coverage_confidence": 0.7778,
        "freshness_confidence": 1.0,
        "completeness_confidence": 0.88,
        "coverage_score": 0.7778,
        "freshness_penalty": 0.0,
        "missing_penalty": 0.12,
        "source_details": {
          "weather_observations": {
            "weight": 0.15,
            "status": "present",
            "contribution": 0.15
          },
          "ocean_observations": {
            "weight": 0.15,
            "status": "present",
            "contribution": 0.15
          },
          "vessel_activity": {
            "weight": 0.1,
            "status": "present",
            "contribution": 0.1
          },
          "biological_events": {
            "weight": 0.15,
            "status": "present",
            "contribution": 0.15
          },
          "human_exposure_estimates": {
            "weight": 0.1,
            "status": "present",
            "contribution": 0.1
          },
          "recent_interactions": {
            "weight": 0.15,
            "status": "missing",
            "contribution": 0.15
          },
          "sighting_reports": {
            "weight": 0.1,
            "status": "missing",
            "contribution": 0.1
          },
          "reef_features": {
            "weight": 0.05,
            "status": "present",
            "contribution": 0.05
          },
          "regional_risk_profiles": {
            "weight": 0.05,
            "status": "present",
            "contribution": 0.05
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "data_freshness": {
      "biological_events": {
        "status": "present"
      },
      "human_exposure_estimates": {
        "status": "present"
      },
      "ocean_observations": {
        "status": "present"
      },
      "reef_features": {
        "status": "present"
      },
      "regional_risk_profiles": {
        "status": "present"
      },
      "sst_anomaly": {
        "status": "present"
      },
      "vessel_activity": {
        "status": "present"
      },
      "weather_observations": {
        "status": "present"
      },
      "recent_interactions": {
        "status": "missing"
      },
      "sighting_reports": {
        "status": "missing"
      }
    },
    "missing_data_sources": [
      "recent_interactions",
      "sighting_reports"
    ],
    "missing_signal_impact": [
      {
        "source": "recent_interactions",
        "impact": "Lowers confidence and limits how strongly AI1SAD should interpret the score."
      },
      {
        "source": "sighting_reports",
        "impact": "Lowers confidence and limits how strongly AI1SAD should interpret the score."
      }
    ],
    "regional_pack_influence": {
      "active_pack": "core",
      "available_pack": null,
      "features_used": [],
      "notice": null
    },
    "regional_rules_triggered": [
      "activity_context",
      "activity_hazard_score",
      "queensland_tiger_bull_reef_spearfishing_context",
      "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
      "regional_species_match",
      "regional_species_suitability"
    ],
    "active_rules_triggered": [
      "activity_context",
      "activity_hazard_score",
      "queensland_tiger_bull_reef_spearfishing_context",
      "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
      "regional_species_match",
      "regional_species_suitability"
    ],
    "suppression_reasons": [
      "General environmental warning remains low because live-condition signals are not strongly stacked.",
      "Low general warning does not suppress surveillance priority when activity, habitat, or species context is strong.",
      "Quiet-day comparison does not show a warning-band change."
    ],
    "operational_interpretation": "AI1SAD reads this as low general environmental warning but high operational surveillance priority. That split is driven by activity, habitat, regional species suitability, or recent operational context.",
    "recommended_action": "Prioritize reef edge, dropoff, and adjacent current lines with expanding drone passes.",
    "recommended_surveillance_pattern": "reef_edge_expanding_grid",
    "recommended_surveillance_pattern_label": "Reef-edge expanding grid",
    "metadata": {
      "model_version": "0.11.0",
      "scoring_revision": "phase-11-explainability",
      "provider_stack_version": "phase-9-static-live-adapters",
      "generated_at": "2026-05-25T05:15:32.489827+00:00",
      "replay_asset_version": "2026.05"
    },
    "disclaimer": "AI1SAD estimates environmental and surveillance-relevant shark encounter conditions. It does not predict individual attacks or guarantee safety outcomes. It is not an attack prediction."
  }
}