{
  "case_id": "nsa_panama_city_florida_2026_drone_observation",
  "title": "NSA Panama City Florida 2026 drone observation fixture",
  "location": {
    "name": "NSA Panama City MWR Marina fixture point",
    "lat": 30.1826,
    "lon": -85.7539
  },
  "timestamp": "2026-06-08T17:15:00+00:00",
  "scenario_type": "fixture_based_drone_observation_replay",
  "warning_score": 5.83,
  "warning_band": "low",
  "activity_hazard_score": 0,
  "activity_hazard_band": "low",
  "surveillance_priority_score": 30.45,
  "surveillance_priority_band": "moderate",
  "confidence_breakdown": {
    "overall_confidence": 0.5724,
    "confidence_band": "low",
    "components": {
      "coverage_confidence": 0.1111,
      "freshness_confidence": 1.0,
      "completeness_confidence": 0.76,
      "coverage_score": 0.1111,
      "freshness_penalty": 0.0,
      "missing_penalty": 0.24,
      "source_details": {
        "weather_observations": {
          "weight": 0.15,
          "status": "missing",
          "contribution": 0.15
        },
        "ocean_observations": {
          "weight": 0.15,
          "status": "missing",
          "contribution": 0.15
        },
        "vessel_activity": {
          "weight": 0.1,
          "status": "missing",
          "contribution": 0.1
        },
        "biological_events": {
          "weight": 0.15,
          "status": "missing",
          "contribution": 0.15
        },
        "human_exposure_estimates": {
          "weight": 0.1,
          "status": "present",
          "contribution": 0.1
        },
        "recent_interactions": {
          "weight": 0.15,
          "status": "missing",
          "contribution": 0.15
        },
        "sighting_reports": {
          "weight": 0.1,
          "status": "missing",
          "contribution": 0.1
        },
        "reef_features": {
          "weight": 0.05,
          "status": "missing",
          "contribution": 0.05
        },
        "regional_risk_profiles": {
          "weight": 0.05,
          "status": "missing",
          "contribution": 0.05
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "dominant_factors": [
    {
      "factor": "verified_sightings_nearby",
      "value": 1,
      "points": 11,
      "rationale": "Verified public sighting reports near the mission area increase search priority.",
      "contribution": 0.3612
    },
    {
      "factor": "human_exposure_level",
      "value": 0.45,
      "points": 5.4,
      "rationale": "Human activity level affects search urgency and area selection.",
      "contribution": 0.1773
    },
    {
      "factor": "human_exposure_surveillance_amplifier",
      "value": 0.45,
      "contexts": [
        "sightings",
        "activity_context"
      ],
      "points": 4.05,
      "rationale": "Crowding/exposure can raise surveillance priority only when paired with sightings, activity context, recent interactions, or environmental signals.",
      "contribution": 0.133
    },
    {
      "factor": "activity_context",
      "value": "swimming",
      "points": 4,
      "rationale": "Activity context shapes where a safety team may search; spearfishing is context, not automatic provocation.",
      "contribution": 0.1314
    },
    {
      "factor": "regional_sst_species_context",
      "value": 5.83,
      "points": 3,
      "rationale": "Regional SST species context can support surveillance review without dominating priority.",
      "contribution": 0.0985
    },
    {
      "factor": "regional_species_suitability",
      "value": null,
      "points": 3.0,
      "rationale": "Nearest regional profile and suspected species context adjust search priority.",
      "contribution": 0.0985
    }
  ],
  "missing_signal_sources": [
    "biological_events",
    "ocean_observations",
    "recent_interactions",
    "reef_features",
    "sst_anomaly",
    "vessel_activity",
    "weather_observations"
  ],
  "data_sources_used": [
    "human_exposure_estimates",
    "regional_risk_profiles",
    "sighting_reports"
  ],
  "quiet_day_comparison": {
    "current_warning_score": 5.83,
    "baseline_warning_score": 15.77,
    "delta": -9.94,
    "delta_percent": -63.03,
    "current_band": "low",
    "baseline_band": "low",
    "band_change": false,
    "current_confidence": 0.55,
    "baseline_confidence": 0.83,
    "missing_data_sources": [
      "biological_events",
      "ocean_observations",
      "sst_anomaly",
      "vessel_activity",
      "weather_observations"
    ],
    "interpretation": "Near quiet-day baseline with limited data."
  },
  "drone_observations": [
    {
      "_id": "drone-observation-nsa-panama-city-2026-01",
      "observation_id": "drone-observation-nsa-panama-city-2026-01",
      "mission_id": "mission-nsa-panama-city-2026",
      "drone_id": "human-operated-drone-fixture",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-08T17:05:00+00:00",
      "latitude": 30.1826,
      "longitude": -85.7539,
      "location": {
        "geo": {
          "type": "Point",
          "coordinates": [
            -85.7539,
            30.1826
          ]
        }
      },
      "observation_type": "shark_sighting",
      "count": 1,
      "estimated_length_m": null,
      "official_species_classification": "unknown",
      "probable_species": "bull shark",
      "scientific_name": "Carcharhinus leucas",
      "species_assessment_source": "analyst_visual_assessment",
      "species_confidence": 0.62,
      "evidence_basis": [
        "pectoral-fin morphology",
        "caudal-fin / tail-fin profile visible in footage"
      ],
      "observed_behavior": "source-attributed surf-line observation",
      "behavior_source": "operator footage review",
      "evidence_type": "drone_video_metadata",
      "confidence": 0.68,
      "review_status": "analyst_reviewed",
      "source": "fixture_historical_drone_observation",
      "source_type": "human_operated_drone",
      "visibility": "public",
      "active_pack": "florida",
      "recommended_surveillance_pattern": "post_sighting_focus_area",
      "human_approved": true,
      "autonomous_flight_control": false
    },
    {
      "_id": "drone-observation-nsa-panama-city-2026-02",
      "observation_id": "drone-observation-nsa-panama-city-2026-02",
      "mission_id": "mission-nsa-panama-city-2026",
      "drone_id": "human-operated-drone-fixture",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-08T17:30:00+00:00",
      "latitude": 30.1826,
      "longitude": -85.7539,
      "location": {
        "geo": {
          "type": "Point",
          "coordinates": [
            -85.7539,
            30.1826
          ]
        }
      },
      "observation_type": "no_sighting_patrol_result",
      "count": 0,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "review_status": "operator_reviewed",
      "source": "fixture_historical_drone_observation",
      "source_type": "human_operated_drone",
      "visibility": "public",
      "active_pack": "florida",
      "recommended_surveillance_pattern": "shoreline_parallel_sweep",
      "human_approved": true,
      "autonomous_flight_control": false
    }
  ],
  "operational_recommendations": [
    "post_sighting_focus_area",
    "shoreline_parallel_sweep",
    "human_operator_review_required"
  ],
  "timeline_notes": [
    "Fixture uses source-attributed drone observation metadata only.",
    "Probable species is analyst visual assessment metadata, not agency-confirmed taxonomy.",
    "No autonomous flight control is represented."
  ],
  "model_metadata": {
    "model_version": "0.11.0",
    "scoring_revision": "phase-11-explainability",
    "provider_stack_version": "phase-9-static-live-adapters",
    "generated_at": "2026-06-10T06:52:48.050380+00:00",
    "replay_asset_version": "2026.05"
  },
  "disclaimer": "AI1SAD estimates environmental and surveillance-relevant shark encounter conditions. It does not predict individual attacks or guarantee safety outcomes. It is not an attack prediction."
}