{
  "case_id": "lovers_point_pacific_grove_whale_carcass_2026",
  "title": "Lovers Point Pacific Grove whale carcass response replay (2026-06-03)",
  "source_record": {
    "location": "Lovers Point, Pacific Grove, Monterey County, California",
    "coordinates": {
      "lat": 36.625,
      "lon": -121.916,
      "coordinate_note": "Approximate replay point near Lovers Point / Hopkins Marine Station shoreline."
    },
    "initial_police_notification": "approximately 2026-06-03T12:55:00-07:00",
    "event": "deceased whale floating near shoreline",
    "authority_response": "temporary Lovers Point beach-access closure",
    "closure_monitoring_through": "at least 2026-06-05",
    "authority_concern": "Marine mammal carcasses can attract sharks, particularly larger predatory species.",
    "official_species_identification": "humpback whale",
    "taxonomy_status": "official_city_follow_up",
    "historical_conflicting_identification_handling": "Earlier conflicting identification, if present, is source-attributed historical metadata only and is not treated as settled fact."
  },
  "carcass_metadata": {
    "nearshore_carcass_context": true,
    "active_beach_closure": true,
    "drift_direction": "unavailable",
    "drift_speed": "unavailable",
    "tide_current_fixture_support": "not_available_for_this_case",
    "confirmed_shark_sightings_in_verified_runs": 0
  },
  "runs": {
    "initial_carcass_response": {
      "scenario_id": "lovers_point_pacific_grove_whale_carcass_2026_initial",
      "label": "Lovers Point Pacific Grove whale carcass response replay",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-03T19:55:00+00:00",
      "warning_score": 23.73,
      "warning_band": "low",
      "activity_hazard_score": 12,
      "activity_hazard_band": "low",
      "surveillance_priority_score": 28.16,
      "surveillance_priority_band": "moderate",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "confidence_breakdown": {
        "overall_confidence": 0.5724,
        "confidence_band": "low",
        "components": {
          "coverage_confidence": 0.1111,
          "freshness_confidence": 1.0,
          "completeness_confidence": 0.76,
          "coverage_score": 0.1111,
          "freshness_penalty": 0.0,
          "missing_penalty": 0.24,
          "source_details": {
            "weather_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "ocean_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "vessel_activity": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "biological_events": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "present",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "human_exposure_estimates": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "recent_interactions": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "sighting_reports": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "reef_features": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            },
            "regional_risk_profiles": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            }
          }
        }
      },
      "dominant_warning_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "biological_event_score",
          "value": 2,
          "points": 20.64,
          "rationale": "Whale carcass, stranding, baitfish, or prey event signal.",
          "contribution": 0.8698
        },
        {
          "factor": "regional_summer_high_exposure",
          "value": 6,
          "multiplier": 1.08,
          "points": 1.76,
          "rationale": "Regional seasonal multiplier.",
          "contribution": 0.0742
        },
        {
          "factor": "kelp_forest_habitat_context",
          "value": "moderate",
          "contexts": [
            "moderate",
            "pinniped_prey_context"
          ],
          "points": 1.33,
          "rationale": "Static kelp habitat is bounded environmental context; kelp alone is not treated as a high general warning driver.",
          "contribution": 0.056
        },
        {
          "factor": "rainfall_intensity_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall in the previous 72 hours.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "factor": "runoff_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0.0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall/runoff proxy near coastal water.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "dominant_surveillance_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "biological_event_surveillance_context",
          "value": [
            "whale_carcass",
            "beach_closure"
          ],
          "points": 15.48,
          "rationale": "Carcass and fish-kill events have stronger surveillance influence than broad migration or prey context.",
          "contribution": 0.5497
        },
        {
          "factor": "kelp_forest_surveillance_context",
          "value": [
            "kelp_density_context",
            "kelp_forest_presence",
            "kelp_prey_overlap"
          ],
          "contexts": [
            "moderate",
            "pinniped_prey_overlap"
          ],
          "points": 8.48,
          "optimal_kelpedge_score": 1.74,
          "rationale": "Kelp forest context is bounded habitat information; it raises surveillance attention only when paired with edge habitat, prey, activity, or white shark regional context.",
          "contribution": 0.3011
        },
        {
          "factor": "activity_hazard_score",
          "value": 12,
          "points": 4.2,
          "rationale": "Activity hazard feeds surveillance priority separately from environmental warning score.",
          "contribution": 0.1491
        },
        {
          "factor": "recent_interactions_nearby",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Recent public fatal/nonfatal interactions near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "factor": "verified_sightings_nearby",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Verified public sighting reports near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "missing_signal_sources": [
        "human_exposure_estimates",
        "ocean_observations",
        "recent_interactions",
        "reef_features",
        "sighting_reports",
        "sst_anomaly",
        "vessel_activity",
        "weather_observations"
      ],
      "data_sources_used": [
        "biological_events",
        "kelp_forest_static",
        "regional_risk_profiles"
      ],
      "active_regional_pack": "california",
      "engine_recommended_pattern": "kelp-edge expanding grid",
      "timeline_note": "Includes nearshore carcass context and active beach closure; no shark sightings or drift values are invented."
    },
    "drift_corridor_planning": {
      "scenario_id": "lovers_point_pacific_grove_whale_carcass_2026_drift_planning",
      "label": "Lovers Point Pacific Grove whale carcass drift-corridor planning replay",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T19:00:00+00:00",
      "warning_score": 23.73,
      "warning_band": "low",
      "activity_hazard_score": 12,
      "activity_hazard_band": "low",
      "surveillance_priority_score": 28.16,
      "surveillance_priority_band": "moderate",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "confidence_breakdown": {
        "overall_confidence": 0.5724,
        "confidence_band": "low",
        "components": {
          "coverage_confidence": 0.1111,
          "freshness_confidence": 1.0,
          "completeness_confidence": 0.76,
          "coverage_score": 0.1111,
          "freshness_penalty": 0.0,
          "missing_penalty": 0.24,
          "source_details": {
            "weather_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "ocean_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "vessel_activity": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "biological_events": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "present",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "human_exposure_estimates": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "recent_interactions": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "sighting_reports": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "reef_features": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            },
            "regional_risk_profiles": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            }
          }
        }
      },
      "dominant_warning_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "biological_event_score",
          "value": 2,
          "points": 20.64,
          "rationale": "Whale carcass, stranding, baitfish, or prey event signal.",
          "contribution": 0.8698
        },
        {
          "factor": "regional_summer_high_exposure",
          "value": 6,
          "multiplier": 1.08,
          "points": 1.76,
          "rationale": "Regional seasonal multiplier.",
          "contribution": 0.0742
        },
        {
          "factor": "kelp_forest_habitat_context",
          "value": "moderate",
          "contexts": [
            "moderate",
            "pinniped_prey_context"
          ],
          "points": 1.33,
          "rationale": "Static kelp habitat is bounded environmental context; kelp alone is not treated as a high general warning driver.",
          "contribution": 0.056
        },
        {
          "factor": "rainfall_intensity_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall in the previous 72 hours.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "factor": "runoff_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0.0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall/runoff proxy near coastal water.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "dominant_surveillance_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "biological_event_surveillance_context",
          "value": [
            "whale_carcass",
            "beach_closure"
          ],
          "points": 15.48,
          "rationale": "Carcass and fish-kill events have stronger surveillance influence than broad migration or prey context.",
          "contribution": 0.5497
        },
        {
          "factor": "kelp_forest_surveillance_context",
          "value": [
            "kelp_density_context",
            "kelp_forest_presence",
            "kelp_prey_overlap"
          ],
          "contexts": [
            "moderate",
            "pinniped_prey_overlap"
          ],
          "points": 8.48,
          "optimal_kelpedge_score": 1.74,
          "rationale": "Kelp forest context is bounded habitat information; it raises surveillance attention only when paired with edge habitat, prey, activity, or white shark regional context.",
          "contribution": 0.3011
        },
        {
          "factor": "activity_hazard_score",
          "value": 12,
          "points": 4.2,
          "rationale": "Activity hazard feeds surveillance priority separately from environmental warning score.",
          "contribution": 0.1491
        },
        {
          "factor": "recent_interactions_nearby",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Recent public fatal/nonfatal interactions near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "factor": "verified_sightings_nearby",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Verified public sighting reports near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "missing_signal_sources": [
        "human_exposure_estimates",
        "ocean_observations",
        "recent_interactions",
        "reef_features",
        "sighting_reports",
        "sst_anomaly",
        "vessel_activity",
        "weather_observations"
      ],
      "data_sources_used": [
        "biological_events",
        "kelp_forest_static",
        "regional_risk_profiles"
      ],
      "active_regional_pack": "california",
      "engine_recommended_pattern": "kelp-edge expanding grid",
      "operational_planning_label": true,
      "drift_direction": "unavailable",
      "timeline_note": "No tide/current fixture is available; future drift corridor remains a placeholder recommendation."
    },
    "hypothetical_nearby_sighting_sensitivity": {
      "scenario_id": "lovers_point_pacific_grove_whale_carcass_2026_hypothetical_sighting",
      "label": "Lovers Point Pacific Grove whale carcass hypothetical nearby-sighting sensitivity replay",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-03T21:00:00+00:00",
      "warning_score": 23.73,
      "warning_band": "low",
      "activity_hazard_score": 12,
      "activity_hazard_band": "low",
      "surveillance_priority_score": 39.16,
      "surveillance_priority_band": "moderate",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "confidence_breakdown": {
        "overall_confidence": 0.5724,
        "confidence_band": "low",
        "components": {
          "coverage_confidence": 0.1111,
          "freshness_confidence": 1.0,
          "completeness_confidence": 0.76,
          "coverage_score": 0.1111,
          "freshness_penalty": 0.0,
          "missing_penalty": 0.24,
          "source_details": {
            "weather_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "ocean_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "vessel_activity": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "biological_events": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "present",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "human_exposure_estimates": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "recent_interactions": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "sighting_reports": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "reef_features": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            },
            "regional_risk_profiles": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            }
          }
        }
      },
      "dominant_warning_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "biological_event_score",
          "value": 2,
          "points": 20.64,
          "rationale": "Whale carcass, stranding, baitfish, or prey event signal.",
          "contribution": 0.8698
        },
        {
          "factor": "regional_summer_high_exposure",
          "value": 6,
          "multiplier": 1.08,
          "points": 1.76,
          "rationale": "Regional seasonal multiplier.",
          "contribution": 0.0742
        },
        {
          "factor": "kelp_forest_habitat_context",
          "value": "moderate",
          "contexts": [
            "moderate",
            "pinniped_prey_context"
          ],
          "points": 1.33,
          "rationale": "Static kelp habitat is bounded environmental context; kelp alone is not treated as a high general warning driver.",
          "contribution": 0.056
        },
        {
          "factor": "rainfall_intensity_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall in the previous 72 hours.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "factor": "runoff_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0.0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall/runoff proxy near coastal water.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "dominant_surveillance_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "biological_event_surveillance_context",
          "value": [
            "whale_carcass",
            "beach_closure"
          ],
          "points": 15.48,
          "rationale": "Carcass and fish-kill events have stronger surveillance influence than broad migration or prey context.",
          "contribution": 0.3953
        },
        {
          "factor": "verified_sightings_nearby",
          "value": 1,
          "points": 11,
          "rationale": "Verified public sighting reports near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.2809
        },
        {
          "factor": "kelp_forest_surveillance_context",
          "value": [
            "kelp_density_context",
            "kelp_forest_presence",
            "kelp_prey_overlap"
          ],
          "contexts": [
            "moderate",
            "pinniped_prey_overlap"
          ],
          "points": 8.48,
          "optimal_kelpedge_score": 1.74,
          "rationale": "Kelp forest context is bounded habitat information; it raises surveillance attention only when paired with edge habitat, prey, activity, or white shark regional context.",
          "contribution": 0.2165
        },
        {
          "factor": "activity_hazard_score",
          "value": 12,
          "points": 4.2,
          "rationale": "Activity hazard feeds surveillance priority separately from environmental warning score.",
          "contribution": 0.1073
        },
        {
          "factor": "recent_interactions_nearby",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Recent public fatal/nonfatal interactions near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "missing_signal_sources": [
        "human_exposure_estimates",
        "ocean_observations",
        "recent_interactions",
        "reef_features",
        "sst_anomaly",
        "vessel_activity",
        "weather_observations"
      ],
      "data_sources_used": [
        "biological_events",
        "kelp_forest_static",
        "regional_risk_profiles",
        "sighting_reports"
      ],
      "active_regional_pack": "california",
      "engine_recommended_pattern": "kelp-edge expanding grid",
      "hypothetical": true,
      "hypothetical_label": "Nearby sighting sensitivity only; not part of the verified event record."
    }
  },
  "comparisons": {
    "hypothetical_vs_initial_surveillance_delta": 11.0,
    "drift_planning_vs_initial_surveillance_delta": 0.0,
    "interpretation": "Verified carcass and closure context raise surveillance attention modestly; the hypothetical sighting adds an incremental lift without contaminating verified runs."
  },
  "recommended_surveillance_patterns": [
    "carcass_event_buffer_zone",
    "shoreline_parallel_sweep",
    "kelp_edge_focus_scan",
    "future_down_current_drift_corridor"
  ],
  "missing_signal_sources": [
    "drift_direction",
    "human_exposure_estimates",
    "ocean_observations",
    "recent_interactions",
    "reef_features",
    "sighting_reports",
    "sst_anomaly",
    "tide_current_fixture",
    "vessel_activity",
    "weather_observations"
  ],
  "model_metadata": {
    "model_version": "0.11.0",
    "scoring_revision": "phase-11-explainability",
    "provider_stack_version": "phase-9-static-live-adapters",
    "generated_at": "2026-06-07T10:37:36.253798+00:00",
    "replay_asset_version": "2026.05"
  },
  "disclaimer": "AI1SAD estimates environmental and surveillance-relevant shark encounter conditions. It does not predict individual attacks or guarantee safety outcomes. It is not an attack prediction."
}