{
  "case_id": "cromwells_beach_hawaii_2026",
  "title": "Cromwell's Beach shark incident replay, Honolulu, Hawaii (2026-05-30)",
  "location": {
    "name": "Cromwell's Beach near Diamond Head, Honolulu, Oahu, Hawaii",
    "coordinates": {
      "lat": 21.255,
      "lon": -157.81
    }
  },
  "timeline": {
    "incident_date": "2026-05-30",
    "sensitivity_window_hst": "2026-05-30T06:15:00-10:00 through 2026-05-30T06:30:00-10:00",
    "ems_response_hst": "approximately 06:30",
    "ala_moana_warning_hst": "approximately 07:20"
  },
  "species_context": {
    "confirmed_species": null,
    "reported_size_feet": "6 to 8",
    "note": "Species is unidentified; any species context is uncertain regional suitability only."
  },
  "runs": {
    "swimming_across_channel": {
      "scenario_id": "cromwells_beach_hawaii_2026_pre_swimming",
      "label": "Cromwell's Beach May 30 2026 pre-incident replay (swimming across channel)",
      "timestamp": "2026-05-30T16:20:00+00:00",
      "activity_variant": "swimming_across_channel",
      "warning_score": 0.0,
      "warning_band": "low",
      "activity_hazard_score": 0,
      "activity_hazard_band": "low",
      "surveillance_priority_score": 15.0,
      "surveillance_priority_band": "low",
      "confidence_breakdown": {
        "overall_confidence": 0.51,
        "confidence_band": "low",
        "components": {
          "coverage_confidence": 0.0,
          "freshness_confidence": 1.0,
          "completeness_confidence": 0.7,
          "coverage_score": 0.0,
          "freshness_penalty": 0.0,
          "missing_penalty": 0.3,
          "source_details": {
            "weather_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "ocean_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "vessel_activity": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "biological_events": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "human_exposure_estimates": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "recent_interactions": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "sighting_reports": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "reef_features": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            },
            "regional_risk_profiles": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            }
          }
        }
      },
      "dominant_warning_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "rainfall_intensity_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall in the previous 72 hours.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "runoff_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0.0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall/runoff proxy near coastal water.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "river_mouth_proximity_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Nearest river mouth, inlet, estuary, or outflow.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "sst_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature suitability.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "sst_anomaly_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature anomaly magnitude.",
          "contribution": 0
        }
      ],
      "dominant_surveillance_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
          "value": 1,
          "points": 5,
          "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
          "contribution": 0.3333
        },
        {
          "factor": "activity_context",
          "value": "swimming",
          "points": 4,
          "rationale": "Activity context shapes where a safety team may search; spearfishing is context, not automatic provocation.",
          "contribution": 0.2667
        },
        {
          "factor": "regional_sst_species_context",
          "value": 0.0,
          "points": 3,
          "rationale": "Regional SST species context can support surveillance review without dominating priority.",
          "contribution": 0.2
        },
        {
          "factor": "regional_species_suitability",
          "value": null,
          "points": 3.0,
          "rationale": "Nearest regional profile and suspected species context adjust search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.2
        },
        {
          "factor": "recent_interactions_nearby",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Recent public fatal/nonfatal interactions near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "factor": "verified_sightings_nearby",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Verified public sighting reports near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "missing_data_sources": [
        "biological_events",
        "human_exposure_estimates",
        "ocean_observations",
        "recent_interactions",
        "sighting_reports",
        "sst_anomaly",
        "vessel_activity",
        "weather_observations"
      ],
      "data_sources_used": [
        "reef_features",
        "regional_risk_profiles"
      ],
      "regional_rules_triggered": [],
      "recommended_surveillance_pattern": "surf-zone ladder search",
      "quiet_day_comparison": {
        "current_warning_score": 0.0,
        "baseline_warning_score": 15.33,
        "delta": -15.33,
        "delta_percent": -100.0,
        "current_band": "low",
        "baseline_band": "low",
        "band_change": false,
        "current_confidence": 0.48,
        "baseline_confidence": 0.83,
        "missing_data_sources": [
          "biological_events",
          "human_exposure_estimates",
          "ocean_observations",
          "sst_anomaly",
          "vessel_activity",
          "weather_observations"
        ],
        "interpretation": "Below quiet-day baseline."
      },
      "operational_interpretation": "See case study narrative for timeline-separated interpretation."
    },
    "surfing_or_paddling_out": {
      "scenario_id": "cromwells_beach_hawaii_2026_pre_surfing",
      "label": "Cromwell's Beach May 30 2026 pre-incident replay (surfing or paddling out)",
      "timestamp": "2026-05-30T16:20:00+00:00",
      "activity_variant": "surfing_or_paddling_out",
      "warning_score": 0.0,
      "warning_band": "low",
      "activity_hazard_score": 0,
      "activity_hazard_band": "low",
      "surveillance_priority_score": 18.0,
      "surveillance_priority_band": "low",
      "confidence_breakdown": {
        "overall_confidence": 0.51,
        "confidence_band": "low",
        "components": {
          "coverage_confidence": 0.0,
          "freshness_confidence": 1.0,
          "completeness_confidence": 0.7,
          "coverage_score": 0.0,
          "freshness_penalty": 0.0,
          "missing_penalty": 0.3,
          "source_details": {
            "weather_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "ocean_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "vessel_activity": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "biological_events": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "human_exposure_estimates": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "recent_interactions": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "sighting_reports": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "reef_features": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            },
            "regional_risk_profiles": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            }
          }
        }
      },
      "dominant_warning_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "rainfall_intensity_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall in the previous 72 hours.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "runoff_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0.0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall/runoff proxy near coastal water.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "river_mouth_proximity_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Nearest river mouth, inlet, estuary, or outflow.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "sst_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature suitability.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "sst_anomaly_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature anomaly magnitude.",
          "contribution": 0
        }
      ],
      "dominant_surveillance_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "activity_context",
          "value": "surfing",
          "points": 7,
          "rationale": "Activity context shapes where a safety team may search; spearfishing is context, not automatic provocation.",
          "contribution": 0.3889
        },
        {
          "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
          "value": 1,
          "points": 5,
          "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
          "contribution": 0.2778
        },
        {
          "factor": "regional_sst_species_context",
          "value": 0.0,
          "points": 3,
          "rationale": "Regional SST species context can support surveillance review without dominating priority.",
          "contribution": 0.1667
        },
        {
          "factor": "regional_species_suitability",
          "value": null,
          "points": 3.0,
          "rationale": "Nearest regional profile and suspected species context adjust search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.1667
        },
        {
          "factor": "recent_interactions_nearby",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Recent public fatal/nonfatal interactions near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "factor": "verified_sightings_nearby",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Verified public sighting reports near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "missing_data_sources": [
        "biological_events",
        "human_exposure_estimates",
        "ocean_observations",
        "recent_interactions",
        "sighting_reports",
        "sst_anomaly",
        "vessel_activity",
        "weather_observations"
      ],
      "data_sources_used": [
        "reef_features",
        "regional_risk_profiles"
      ],
      "regional_rules_triggered": [],
      "recommended_surveillance_pattern": "surf-zone ladder search",
      "quiet_day_comparison": {
        "current_warning_score": 0.0,
        "baseline_warning_score": 15.33,
        "delta": -15.33,
        "delta_percent": -100.0,
        "current_band": "low",
        "baseline_band": "low",
        "band_change": false,
        "current_confidence": 0.48,
        "baseline_confidence": 0.83,
        "missing_data_sources": [
          "biological_events",
          "human_exposure_estimates",
          "ocean_observations",
          "sst_anomaly",
          "vessel_activity",
          "weather_observations"
        ],
        "interpretation": "Below quiet-day baseline."
      },
      "operational_interpretation": "See case study narrative for timeline-separated interpretation."
    },
    "post_incident_update": {
      "scenario_id": "cromwells_beach_hawaii_2026_post_update",
      "label": "Cromwell's Beach May 30 2026 post-incident surveillance update",
      "timestamp": "2026-05-30T17:25:00+00:00",
      "activity_variant": "post_incident_update",
      "warning_score": 0.0,
      "warning_band": "low",
      "activity_hazard_score": 0,
      "activity_hazard_band": "low",
      "surveillance_priority_score": 40.0,
      "surveillance_priority_band": "moderate",
      "confidence_breakdown": {
        "overall_confidence": 0.51,
        "confidence_band": "low",
        "components": {
          "coverage_confidence": 0.0,
          "freshness_confidence": 1.0,
          "completeness_confidence": 0.7,
          "coverage_score": 0.0,
          "freshness_penalty": 0.0,
          "missing_penalty": 0.3,
          "source_details": {
            "weather_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "ocean_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "vessel_activity": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "biological_events": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "human_exposure_estimates": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "recent_interactions": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "sighting_reports": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "reef_features": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            },
            "regional_risk_profiles": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            }
          }
        }
      },
      "dominant_warning_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "rainfall_intensity_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall in the previous 72 hours.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "runoff_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0.0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall/runoff proxy near coastal water.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "river_mouth_proximity_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Nearest river mouth, inlet, estuary, or outflow.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "sst_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature suitability.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "sst_anomaly_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature anomaly magnitude.",
          "contribution": 0
        }
      ],
      "dominant_surveillance_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "verified_sightings_nearby",
          "value": 2,
          "points": 22,
          "rationale": "Verified public sighting reports near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.55
        },
        {
          "factor": "activity_context",
          "value": "surfing",
          "points": 7,
          "rationale": "Activity context shapes where a safety team may search; spearfishing is context, not automatic provocation.",
          "contribution": 0.175
        },
        {
          "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
          "value": 1,
          "points": 5,
          "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
          "contribution": 0.125
        },
        {
          "factor": "regional_sst_species_context",
          "value": 0.0,
          "points": 3,
          "rationale": "Regional SST species context can support surveillance review without dominating priority.",
          "contribution": 0.075
        },
        {
          "factor": "regional_species_suitability",
          "value": null,
          "points": 3.0,
          "rationale": "Nearest regional profile and suspected species context adjust search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.075
        },
        {
          "factor": "recent_interactions_nearby",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Recent public fatal/nonfatal interactions near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "missing_data_sources": [
        "biological_events",
        "human_exposure_estimates",
        "ocean_observations",
        "recent_interactions",
        "sst_anomaly",
        "vessel_activity",
        "weather_observations"
      ],
      "data_sources_used": [
        "reef_features",
        "regional_risk_profiles",
        "sighting_reports"
      ],
      "regional_rules_triggered": [],
      "recommended_surveillance_pattern": "surf-zone ladder search",
      "quiet_day_comparison": {
        "current_warning_score": 0.0,
        "baseline_warning_score": 15.33,
        "delta": -15.33,
        "delta_percent": -100.0,
        "current_band": "low",
        "baseline_band": "low",
        "band_change": false,
        "current_confidence": 0.48,
        "baseline_confidence": 0.83,
        "missing_data_sources": [
          "biological_events",
          "human_exposure_estimates",
          "ocean_observations",
          "sst_anomaly",
          "vessel_activity",
          "weather_observations"
        ],
        "interpretation": "Below quiet-day baseline."
      },
      "operational_interpretation": "See case study narrative for timeline-separated interpretation."
    },
    "hypothetical_earlier_sighting_available": {
      "scenario_id": "cromwells_beach_hawaii_2026_hypothetical_early_sighting",
      "label": "Cromwell's Beach May 30 2026 hypothetical early sighting ingestion",
      "timestamp": "2026-05-30T16:20:00+00:00",
      "activity_variant": "hypothetical_earlier_sighting_available",
      "warning_score": 0.0,
      "warning_band": "low",
      "activity_hazard_score": 0,
      "activity_hazard_band": "low",
      "surveillance_priority_score": 29.0,
      "surveillance_priority_band": "moderate",
      "confidence_breakdown": {
        "overall_confidence": 0.51,
        "confidence_band": "low",
        "components": {
          "coverage_confidence": 0.0,
          "freshness_confidence": 1.0,
          "completeness_confidence": 0.7,
          "coverage_score": 0.0,
          "freshness_penalty": 0.0,
          "missing_penalty": 0.3,
          "source_details": {
            "weather_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "ocean_observations": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "vessel_activity": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "biological_events": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "human_exposure_estimates": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "recent_interactions": {
              "weight": 0.15,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.15
            },
            "sighting_reports": {
              "weight": 0.1,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.1
            },
            "reef_features": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            },
            "regional_risk_profiles": {
              "weight": 0.05,
              "status": "missing",
              "contribution": 0.05
            }
          }
        }
      },
      "dominant_warning_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "rainfall_intensity_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall in the previous 72 hours.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "runoff_score",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0.0,
          "rationale": "Rainfall/runoff proxy near coastal water.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "river_mouth_proximity_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Nearest river mouth, inlet, estuary, or outflow.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "sst_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature suitability.",
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "factor": "sst_anomaly_score",
          "value": null,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Sea-surface temperature anomaly magnitude.",
          "contribution": 0
        }
      ],
      "dominant_surveillance_factors": [
        {
          "factor": "verified_sightings_nearby",
          "value": 1,
          "points": 11,
          "rationale": "Verified public sighting reports near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.3793
        },
        {
          "factor": "activity_context",
          "value": "surfing",
          "points": 7,
          "rationale": "Activity context shapes where a safety team may search; spearfishing is context, not automatic provocation.",
          "contribution": 0.2414
        },
        {
          "factor": "reef_dropoff_habitat_proximity",
          "value": 1,
          "points": 5,
          "rationale": "Reef, dropoff, channel, or habitat features can help define useful drone search zones.",
          "contribution": 0.1724
        },
        {
          "factor": "regional_sst_species_context",
          "value": 0.0,
          "points": 3,
          "rationale": "Regional SST species context can support surveillance review without dominating priority.",
          "contribution": 0.1034
        },
        {
          "factor": "regional_species_suitability",
          "value": null,
          "points": 3.0,
          "rationale": "Nearest regional profile and suspected species context adjust search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.1034
        },
        {
          "factor": "recent_interactions_nearby",
          "value": 0,
          "points": 0,
          "rationale": "Recent public fatal/nonfatal interactions near the mission area increase search priority.",
          "contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "missing_data_sources": [
        "biological_events",
        "human_exposure_estimates",
        "ocean_observations",
        "recent_interactions",
        "sst_anomaly",
        "vessel_activity",
        "weather_observations"
      ],
      "data_sources_used": [
        "reef_features",
        "regional_risk_profiles",
        "sighting_reports"
      ],
      "regional_rules_triggered": [],
      "recommended_surveillance_pattern": "surf-zone ladder search",
      "quiet_day_comparison": {
        "current_warning_score": 0.0,
        "baseline_warning_score": 15.33,
        "delta": -15.33,
        "delta_percent": -100.0,
        "current_band": "low",
        "baseline_band": "low",
        "band_change": false,
        "current_confidence": 0.48,
        "baseline_confidence": 0.83,
        "missing_data_sources": [
          "biological_events",
          "human_exposure_estimates",
          "ocean_observations",
          "sst_anomaly",
          "vessel_activity",
          "weather_observations"
        ],
        "interpretation": "Below quiet-day baseline."
      },
      "operational_interpretation": "See case study narrative for timeline-separated interpretation."
    }
  },
  "comparisons": {
    "pre_incident_variant_delta": 3.0,
    "post_vs_pre_surveillance_delta": 22.0,
    "hypothetical_earlier_sighting_vs_pre_surveillance_delta": 11.0
  },
  "model_metadata": {
    "model_version": "0.11.0",
    "scoring_revision": "phase-11-explainability",
    "provider_stack_version": "phase-9-static-live-adapters",
    "generated_at": "2026-06-01T02:08:12.478693+00:00",
    "replay_asset_version": "2026.05"
  },
  "disclaimer": "AI1SAD estimates environmental and surveillance-relevant shark encounter conditions. It does not predict individual attacks or infer shark intent.",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-01T02:08:12.478693+00:00"
}